Almost as many people died in 2022 as in 2021. What happened to the mortality study?

Study on excess mortality announced by former Health Minister will still be at an early stage

The year 2022 ended with almost as many deaths from all causes as 2021 and more deaths than were recorded in the first year of the covid-19 pandemic. Still provisional, data from the mortality surveillance system of the Directorate General of Health (DGS) indicate that in 2022 124,731 people died in Portugal, almost equaling the previous year (125,185), which was marked by an unprecedented peak in the number of deaths in January and February. But there is a difference: last year, percentage-wise, deaths attributed to covid-19 accounted for about half of those counted in 2021.

What left the experts intrigued throughout 2022 was, however, the change in the mortality pattern, since, with the exception of August, September, and October, more than 10,000 people per month always died, a phenomenon only paralleled in 1923, in the aftermath of the Spanish flu pandemic, when this barrier was surpassed in the first seven months of the year, according to a collection carried out by Expresso.

Still, and despite the fact that in November and December the number of deaths once again exceeded 10 thousand last year, the in-depth study on this phenomenon announced in August by former Health Minister Marta Temido, following the news that reported the persistent excess mortality (more deaths than expected for that time of year), is still at an early stage.

The deputy director-general of Health, Rui Portugal, told Público that the study is being conducted by the National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge (Insa), but neither this body nor the Ministry of Health clarified, for now, at what stage is this research. "The study is at Insa. The Ministry of Health body responsible for the investigation that receives the questions and has the budget to organize teams and give answers is Insa", said Rui Portugal.

During a recent hearing in Parliament, the new Health Minister said that the DGS and Insa were preparing a "public model of analysis of mortality at the national level in the last two years, with the participation of foreign experts.

Until the first year of the pandemic, periods of excess mortality were always justified by seasonal flu epidemics, consecutive weeks of intense cold in winter and heat waves in summer. In 2020, covid-19 became a new cause of death and mortality skyrocketed, a phenomenon not only in Portugal but also in most European countries and in several countries around the world.